The events of last April 30th in Venezuela allow affirming that the exit to the crisis of governability escaped from the hands of the internal factors in conflict. Both Operation Freedom of Juan Guaidó as well as the call to “popular mobilization” of Nicolás Maduro failed to impose the political agenda that day, nor in the subsequent days. Even though Guaidó continues trying to break the circle that holds Maduro.

The 30-A left Maduro naked, because his immediate surroundings – those that are known: The Minister of Defense, the president of the Supreme Court of Justice, the head of the Military House and the director of Intelligence Services- was committed to the “cessation of the usurpation”. They had negotiated a 15-point road map, according to the information given by the special envoy of the United States for Venezuela.

Trump’s government, the interim president and his inner circle, and the madurista sector of the usurper regime reached an agreement for the transition towards a democracy in Venezuela, defined as a “soft landing”.

Until now The Pentagon has been reluctant to take military action in Venezuela. The new rules of fifth generation war take place in “complex shadows”. They are asymmetric in nature.

An international intervention to end “the cessation of usurpation” would generate the collapse of the Bolivarian National Armed Forces as an institution of the State. This would leave the government of transition without a central control unit. This situation would create armed groups or irregular armies occupying territories, making difficult the governability of the country.

In that sense, the 5,000 MANPADS ground-to-air missiles of Russian manufacture that the FANB has, according to Reuters, could fall into the wrong hands if there is a war with international forces, and will generate destabilization in the region. Therefore, the option of the US military intervention has to control the risks which represents the Mafia state that today operates under the shadow of the nation-state in Venezuela.

Therefore, the reality of 30-A -none of the forces in contention manages to impose on the other- has opened other options to solve the crisis of governance in the Caribbean country.

The presidents of The United States and Russia spoke by phone about Venezuela and of other countries on May 3. The White House spokeswoman assured that the US president “reiterated the need for a peaceful transition”. And, the head of the Russian state claimed that “It is up to the Venezuelans themselves to define the future of their country, (…) external interference and attempts to change power by force undermine the possibilities of a political solution to the crisis”.

Russia seeks to take advantage of its position in Venezuela to resolve the crisis in Ukraine for the annexation of the Crimea in 2014. In Venezuela – apart from continuing to overtake the United States in regional conflicts worldwide – its interest is as creditor of the sale of arms and the collateral it has on Citgo, in addition to been the owner of several oil assets, important for Igor Sechin. A debt that amounts up to 10 billion dollars.

On the other hand, on May 4, the President of Cuba communicated with the Prime Minister of Canada to emphasize the need for dialogue with Maduro, based on respect for the sovereignty of Venezuela and international law without threat or foreign intervention. Both leaders committed to “work together to find a solution to the crisis” in the Bolivarian country. For Cuba, Maduro is the guarantor of the economic survival of the island.

In addition, the Ministers of Foreign Affairs of the Lima Group agreed last Friday in Lima, to invite Cuba and the International Contact Group on Venezuela to participate jointly in a solution to the political crisis in Venezuela, after an emergency meeting of the group.

“The countries of the Lima Group decided to take the necessary steps so that Cuba participates in the search for a solution to the crisis in Venezuela”, said the Foreign Minister of Peru, when reading a statement about the agreements reached during the meeting.

They also “agree to propose to the GCI an urgent meeting of representatives of both groups to seek convergence in the common purpose of achieving the return to democracy in Venezuela”.

Two days ago, the Minister of Foreign Affairs From Russia held conversations with the Secretary of State of the United States in Finland and pointed out: “US military intervention in Venezuela would be catastrophic and unjustified”.

Also, the high representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy said this Monday at the meeting in San José, Costa Rica, that the solution to the crisis in Venezuela must start from the Venezuelans, but the international community and the region “have the duty and responsibility to facilitate it”.

Therefore, the international actors: The United States, Russia, the Lima Group, Canada, Cuba and the International Contact Group (EU) converge on a negotiation for “a peaceful transition” in Venezuela that will result in a presidential election.

This solution will be difficult to manage by Guaidó and Maduro, because both are in irreconcilable positions at this moment. But nevertheless, the 15 points agreed according to Elliott Abrams would be a good starting point to reach a transition that allows holding the elections.

Consequently, the one with the greatest capacity to adapt to the proposal of the international community will be the one that will come out of the quagmire in which the crisis in Venezuela stands.