The political situation in Venezuela is at a critical juncture, where hopes of holding primary elections are intertwined with significant challenges.

The primary has strong support in Venezuelan society, with 84% of the population expressing their endorsement of the self-managed and manual election process scheduled for this Sunday, the 22nd, according to recent results from a survey conducted by Meganálisis. These figures reflect a clear consensus on the importance of these elections as a potential solution to the country's crisis. Additionally, approximately 30% of voters, equivalent to nearly 4.5 million people, have shown a strong determination to participate in this electoral process, as per the same Meganálisis study.

As a result, the leadership led by Maduro accepted its celebration as part of the latest agreement with the Biden administration, formalized between the Unitary Platform and the regime in Barbados yesterday. Venezuelans believe that the success of this electoral path, aimed at finding a solution to the destruction of the state and the collapse of the bolivar as a currency - caused by 23 years of erratic policies - is linked to the understanding reached between Miraflores and the White House.

However, the prospect of the Maduro regime allowing a fair, free, and competitive presidential election and the success of María Corina Machado is perceived by supporters of the cabellomadurismo and some opposition figures as radical and, in some cases, overly optimistic. But the idea that the candidate from Vente Venezuela should lead the opposition, despite the regime's barriers, is seen as a sensible but questioned option, facing internal tensions and external challenges.

The primary would grant her the legitimacy to lead the democratic forces.

According to the latest Delphos survey, María Corina leads the opposition by a wide margin compared to the 14 evaluated leaders, including abstentionists (30%) and undecided (23%).

María Corina Machado's emotional connection with the majority has led to the consolidation of unity among the Venezuelan people. Her leadership transcends the boundaries of political parties, acquiring a cross-cutting character. This popular shield gives her the political capital to undertake the re-founding of the Republic, an essential step in the reconstruction of the democratic state, where the respect for the dignity of each individual is guaranteed.

Her leadership aspires to lead a Venezuela that unites all people - including those who have been forcibly displaced due to lack of opportunities and poverty - under common ideals, increasing their strength and self-assurance. On this path, shared by the majority, she strives to establish a democracy that goes beyond mere electoral participation, enriching it with a broader concept of citizenship. This new democratic paradigm is based on solid principles and an equitable distribution of responsibilities, characterized by mutual respect among all citizens.

Despite persistent doubts about the legitimacy of elections in Venezuela under the Maduro regime, hope for change is shared by various sectors of society. According to data collected in the recent Delphos survey, 59% of Venezuelans believe that the possibility of change is in their own hands, 23% think it lies with the military, and 17% attribute that capacity to the international community. Only 9.7% believe that no one can do anything or that there is no need for change. Although legitimate concerns about the integrity of the electoral process exist, the presidential election is seen as an opportunity to mobilize not only the political opposition but the entire population.

On the other hand, actions taken by the Maduro regime, such as the alleged disqualification of María Corina, have a significant impact on the expectations of those longing for change. These threats seek to undermine the confidence of voters by insinuating that María Corina has no chance of success in the contest.

Additionally, the lifting of U.S. sanctions on the state-owned oil company, Pdvsa, gives Maduro a competitive advantage in the electoral arena. The revenues from oil exports would enable the regime to regain its capacity to exert social control over the population through the distribution of food via CLAP boxes, the implementation of salary increases, and the financing of paramilitary groups known as “colectivos.” Consequently, perceptions of progress in the implementation of agreements and their outcomes will have a significant impact on the behavior of both the regime and the opposition, as well as society at large.

Therefore, it becomes imperative that the oversight committee for the agreement is composed of independent individuals, following the example of the UN Independent Fact-Finding Mission. This will ensure impartial and effective monitoring of agreement implementation and contribute to its legitimacy and transparency.

In conclusion:

• The majority of the population and the international community expect fair, competitive, and free elections in Venezuela, but skepticism based on recent history persists.
• There is a clear consensus on the importance of the primary as the first step in finding a solution to the country's crisis.
• The figure of María Corina Machado and the unity of political opposition stand out as crucial elements in achieving the desired change for the majority of Venezuelans, despite the united support around the leader of Vente Venezuela.
• It is essential for the oversight committee of the agreement to be independent to ensure impartial and transparent monitoring of its implementation.
• The window of opportunity for Venezuela will depend on how these dynamics, expectations, and coordination are managed in the coming months, and whether hope can translate into real and sustainable change for the country.

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