Last Saturday, at the concentration in Guarenas, Miranda state, Juan Guaidó - recognized as president in charge of Venezuela by more than 50 countries- said: "They are not going to screw us, it is enough that they see us as fools". He said it at the time he referred to the dialogue process that took place on Tuesday and Wednesday of last week in Norway.

Guaidó learned that Maduro and his clique had used dialogue in the past (2014, 2016 and 2018) to divide the opposition and defuse widespread protests. Even Pope Francisco - close to the regimes of Cuba and Venezuela - acknowledged that the last dialogue was interrupted "because what was agreed upon at the meetings was not followed by concrete gestures (Maduro's part) to implement the agreements".

Maduro wants to continue usurping power because "the revolution is irreversible". "Neither with votes nor with bullets, neither by good nor bad", Maduro will cease the presidency of Venezuela. Diosdado Cabello says it this way: the opposition "will never return to Miraflores (...) there is no way, no chance" while Guaidó wants "the cessation of usurpation, a government of transition and free, democratic and fair elections", because that is what the Constitution of Venezuela mandates.

Maduro and those that sustains him are afraid of losing the impunity that keeps them supporting the mafia-like state. They know they have outstanding accounts with international justice for crimes against humanity, drug trafficking, and money laundering.

Also, a government of Guaidó would have direct counterproductive effects for the sustainability of Cuba and Nicaragua and favorable results for the region, because it would suppose the end of the asymmetric war that conducts Russia, China, and Iran against the United States in the Americas, through Venezuela.

Therefore, Iran, China, and Russia have reinforced the message that dialogue is the solution to the crisis in Venezuela, seeking to buy time for Maduro and betting on the erosion of Guaidó's political leadership; as it happened in the previous dialogues that weakened the opposition.

The Norwegian government initiative goes in this direction: a dialogue. The Norwegian Center for Conflict Resolution has facilitated three peace processes in Latin America: the armed conflicts of the FARC and the ELN in Colombia and the one in Guatemala.

However, in the case of Venezuela, the armed conflict is on Maduro's side. The weapons are used by the State against the civilian population (peaceful resistance), to repress the demonstrators who fight for the return to democracy. Moreover, the national and international mafias associated with the Maduro regime -they handle illicit business in Venezuela- are those that have the population subjected (social control) to living conditions similar to that of countries devastated by war.

This situation makes a big difference when looking for a negotiated exit in Venezuela because until now the Norwegian government has dealt with a conflict between a nation-state against an insurgent group. That is not the case of the Caribbean country.

In Venezuela, there is a Mafia-state (Maduro) installed, that kidnapped the nation, which struggles to recover their freedom and democracy through the National Assembly, applying the rule of law. (Guaidó)

Therefore, the resolution of the conflict in Venezuela requires not only its management but also creative thinking.

In this sense, Guaidó must count on the support of the international justice system, the international agencies of drug control, money laundering, fight against terrorism, organized crime, and cyber-attack to face negotiation with the Mafia-State.

Additionally, in Venezuela, we are in the presence of an asymmetric war that seeks to undermine Western civilization in the area of influence of the United States.

Russia, China, Iran, and to a lesser degree, Turkey are determined to maintain at all costs the current situation in Venezuela. A territory that allows them to penetrate the region, destabilizing the rest of the South American countries -the exodus of Venezuelans is one of the ways to do so.

After April 30, a negotiated exit was triggered by the severe crisis that Venezuela is going through. The dialogues that have taken place so far are United States-Russia, Canada-Cuba, International Contact Group-Venezuela, and Norway-Venezuela. Each one has different dynamics and objectives.

In the case of the United States-Russia, the negotiation is geopolitical. Besides, Russia has the interest in maintaining its participation in the hydrocarbons sector and the payment of its debt.

Canada-Cuba seeks a negotiation that safeguards the interests of Canadian companies on the island by the suspension of Chapter III of the Helms-Burton Law and the impact on the Cuban economy of Trump's sanctions on Venezuela and Cuba.

The purpose of the GCI-Venezuela negotiation is to achieve an election (presidential or parliamentary), maintaining the status quo. Also, in the case of Norway-Venezuela, it is similar to the one mentioned above. Both seek to address Venezuela's situation as a polarized nation-state.

These dialogues indicate that the scenario changed, so it is necessary to adapt the original strategy and go to a negotiation, exposing the real motives of Maduro and his national and international cronies, maintaining the mafia state. Therefore, Guaidó should seek as mediators, the United States of America and the Lima Group for this new political phase.

The two agree that Russia, China, Cuba and Turkey must leave Venezuela, because Maduro and his allies "are not going to play with us" anymore.

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