Among the various scenarios for the solution of the political crisis in Venezuela, the ones that take relevance are: an electoral or democratic solution and a military intervention or armed solution -thesis discussed for many years in the leftist movements in the sixties of the last century: elections or armed struggle in the struggle to obtain power.

Carlos Alberto Montaner in his recent article, "Political power never comes by fair means, my boy" proposes that Guaidó should request "assistance to the United States (...) to start the armed struggle with the participation of over a thousand military exiled in Colombia". Also, he must be "appealing to Article 350 of the current Constitution, by which he can claim the right to hostility and end the fantasy of free and transparent elections".

Meanwhile María Corina Machado, coordinator of Vente Venezuela Party reiterated to interim president Juan Guaidó this last Sunday to stop the agenda of dialogue with the questioned Nicolás Maduro, recovering the confidence of the international community, and "dedicate his efforts to the construction of a strong international coalition for the liberation of Venezuela, that displaces the occupation force that has been installed here".

Machado wrote in a tweet "our allies in the hemisphere are aware that Maduro and his regime are not going to leave power by electoral means or with false and weak dialogues". Vente Venezuela coordinator warned of the "serious error" that would be the acceptance of the dialogue led by the Government of Norway, which recently moved its headquarters to Sweden, because it would risk the critical support of the United States for a political change in Venezuela.

Jesús Seguías, president of Datincorp, analyzed in the study "Political Cohesion" of June 2, four options within the civic-electoral scenario.

The options with which most Venezuelans agree (6 out of 10): "Maduro comes out of power by good or bad. Then a transitional government led by Juan Guaidó is formed, dedicated to solving the most serious problems of the country. And one year later they call for elections", and the other one: The Venezuelans (6 out of 10) consider that "Nicolás Maduro cannot remain in power until 2025".

The other two key options do not have the support of most Venezuelans (4 of 10): "Maduro stays in power for another year, and new presidential elections are scheduled for July 2020". Also 4 out of 10 agree that "Maduro abandons power only in exchange for someone related with Chavism or an independent assumes the presidency. Then a coalition government is organized with the opposition, dedicated to solving the most severe problems of the country. Three years later presidential elections are called".

Datanalisis, in the study "Economic and Political Scenarios for Venezuela 2019" published in May, determined that half Venezuelans agree with the "armed solution" to get Maduro out of the presidency, and the other half is against it.

While Datincorp measured the "electoral solution" through the renewal of the National Assembly that is proposed by Maduro, also obtaining a consistent result. 50% of Venezuelans agree with the advancement of parliamentary elections.

Therefore, the "civic-electoral" and "military intervention" scenarios have the same probability of occurrence in Venezuela. Guaidó is in a dilemma. His challenge is the direction of the two political agendas, because the strength of the interim government lies in diversity, and its power in Unity.

The civic-electoral scenario is running on the side of Maduro and in some way, Guaidó. Although, the interim government needs to incorporate in the negotiations of Sweden and Oslo the cessation of the national constituent assembly, the election of a new CNE, the updating of the electoral register, the voting system. In addition to choosing the single candidate internally.

Likewise, the civic-electoral exit depends on the internal pressure (Unity of the forces that support Guaidó and articulated political protest) and external (imputation to the members of the Bolivarian Joint Criminal Enterprise), to the point that it threatens the stability of the usurper regime. On the other hand, Russia through the Secretary of the Security Council, Nikolai Patrushev, expressed his willingness to "deepen the dialogue between representatives of Guaidó and Maduro in order to find a solution and overcome the political crisis in the country".

For the agenda of the "Military intervention", Guaidó should incorporate María Corina Machado and those who support this idea, so that they can achieve with the Trump Administration the acceleration of the accusations in the US courts of the members of the Joint Criminal Enterprise (Maduro's Government); and with the Secretary General of the OAS, the application of the Responsibility to Protect (R2P). Besides the reintegration of Venezuela to the TIAR.

The country claims to Guaidó and the leaders of the Democratic Unity inclusive and creative solutions in the different scenarios, because the important thing at this moment is the common good.

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