Brazil is in its final stretch to choose the new president for the next term, from 2019 to 2023. The 17,5% difference, in the first round, of Jair Bolsonaro, of the Social Liberal Party (SLP), over Fernando Haddad, of the Worker's Party (PT), makes his victory predictable.
However, a journalist and friend of mine, Leonardo Coutinho, told me the day after Bolsonaro's victory that his next victory -second round- will not be easy, because the SLP candidate is his own enemy. In addition, abstention, blank and null votes were around 30% in this first round, and the Brazilian media and intellectuals are against him. Also, Bolsonaro, in his 27 years of career in the Brazilian parliament, is not credited for any important bills.
Actually, Bolsonaro represents authoritarianism, racism, sexism, and homophobia. He also defends the years of the Brazilian dictatorship of 1970-1980. His message, that "Brazil is a lost cause, that needs a ruler with an iron fist to restore order", echoes in most Brazilians, upset with the astonishing increase in violence caused by organized crime, criminal gangs and police interventions; cross-cutting corruption scandals, like those of "Lava Jato" and Odebrecht; and the economic recession that has caused a rise in unemployment.
A day after Bolsonaro's electoral triumph, Italian far-right leader Matteo Salvini, vice-president and interior minister of Italy, celebrated the candidate's victory in the first round with a tweet: "Brazil also changes! And there is new air. #GoBolsonaro", showing his alignment with the far-right Brazilian leader.
On the other hand, the electoral positioning of the far-right (conservative, anti-immigrant, Eurosceptic and nationalist) in Europe has had the support of Vladimir Putin for the last five years.
Currently, the European far right is present in 17 national parliaments of the European Union, abd 9 out of the ten largest economies of the bloc. The extreme right has managed to take government in 8 countries, or support such governments from the outside. In Hungary and Poland, they rule without a coalition.
Following this line of thought, Brexit in Great Britain and the presidential election in the United States in 2016 are remarkable events, because they show Putin intention to subvert the Western democratic order.
The British Prime Minister, Theresa May, and the U.S. FBI have pointed out Russian meddling in both the referendum in Great Britain and the presidential election in the United States, by spreading fake news and using information as "a weapon" in the era of "post-truth" politics.
In the case of the United States, they gathered intelligence, data, and metrics from the most significant digital groups on various social networks. They measured the size of these groups, the publication frequency and the level of user interaction with content on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube. This allowed the characterization and description of electoral niches and the creation of profiles that oriented the GOP campaign.
Bolsonaro slogan "Brazil above all, God above everything else" looks a lot like "America First", a slogan used by Donald Trump in the 2016 presidential campaign, whom Bolsonaro said admires.
If Bolsonaro wins the election on October 28th, both the regimes of the Ayatollah in Iran and in Cuba will lose the political space granted to them by the governments of Lula and Dilma. For Cuba, it would mean the return of more than 11,000 Cuban doctors who participate in the "Mas Medicos" program created by Dilma.
The latest polls give Bolsonaro a win for the second round, with 52-54% of the votes while his rival, Haddad, 37%-39%. It is the highest polling result the SLP candidate has had so far. It is also the first time that Bolsonaro reduces his disapproval rate, standing 35% to 38%, whereas the PT candidate has a disapproval rate of 47% to 53%.
Therefore, the lack of support from the Brazilian media and intellectuals for the candidacy of Bolsonaro has not undermined his support base for now. Since, the use of big data drop by Brazilians on social networks (digital fingerprint), in a conscious or subconscious way, have allowed Bolsonaro to position his message effectively and efficiently, in the same way, that happened with Brexit and the electoral triumph of Trump.
Hence, one can derive that there is collaboration of the Kremlin to Bolsonaro presidential victory in Brazil, the largest country in Latin America.