The favorable international factors to maintain the usurper in the Presidency affirm that if there is not an understanding with Maduro "there is war". It is what the former Uruguayan president José "Pepe" Mujica affirms when he says that the Venezuelan crisis poses the dramatic dilemma: "peace or war". It seeks, with this, a negotiation between the parties, and consequently more time for Nicolas Maduro to continue usurping the executive power.

The left wing of the US Democratic Party reinforces the story to extend the usurpation of the Presidency. The representative of Hawaii Tulsi Gabbard said through his Twitter account that the United States should "let the Venezuelan people determine their future" - right of self-determination. The representative of Minnesota Ilhan Omar wrote, "a coup backed by the United States in Venezuela is not a solution to the serious problems they face". And former presidential candidate and Vermont state senator Bernie Sanders tweeted that the United States "should not be in the business of regime change [Venezuela] or support for coups d'état".

Meanwhile, the president of the House of Representatives of the Congress and leader of the Democrat majority, Nancy Pelosi, expressed the support she gives to the opposition leader, Juan Guaidó.

"I support the decision of the National Assembly, the only democratic institution remaining in Venezuela, to recognize Juan Guaidó, president of the National Assembly, as the interim president until full, fair and free elections can be held", Pelosi said.

Also, the International Contact Group of the European Union (Spain, Italy, Portugal, Sweden, Germany, France, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, Uruguay, Costa Rica, and Ecuador) approved a declaration last week that calls for presidential elections in Venezuela, while Bolivia and Mexico did not subscribe it.

Mexico, Bolivia and some countries of the Caribbean Community promote the agenda called the "Montevideo Mechanism", which includes four steps: dialogue, negotiation, commitments and signing agreements, as well as the mechanisms for their verification.

This road map seeks to give time to Maduro. Similar to what happened with the 2016 presidential recall referendum, when Maduro annulled it with the dialogue sponsored by the Holy See.

At this moment, time is crucial for Venezuela to return to democracy or to continue the dictatorship of the usurper.

The three stages (cessation of the usurpation, transitional government, and free elections) established by the interim president, Juan Guaidó, for the return to democracy have an eleven-month critical path, beginning last January 23.

The first stage, cessation of the usurpation, is the shortest of all, three to four weeks, so any delay in it, displaces the time of the next two parallel phases, with a beginning difference between them of three weeks.

Regarding stage three, free, fair and competitive elections, the minimum duration is 32 weeks.

According to Súmate the main activities to be carried out in this phase are:

• make the necessary institutional changes in the electoral body, the judicial power, and the ombudsman;
• establish an impartial national electoral council (CNE), designation of the judges, directors of each regional elective office, the coordinators of the voting centers and operational, technical personnel;
• restore the right of candidates and political participation; update the electoral register (RE), as well as the infrastructure inside and outside the country; and
• review the voting machines, transmission and counting systems, and RE, if the electronic voting system is used. In the case of a manual vote, prepare the electoral material for that purpose.

In the case of Maduro, the four stages of the "Montevideo Mechanism" have infinite duration. The objective is to maintain him in power.

In this sense, Maduro seeks to attack the unity of the opposition parties around Juan Guaidó, wearing them out in the exercise of the interim Presidency, while Maduro does not leave the usurpation. Generating contradictions in tactical decision making among the factors that make up the Unit, and thus weakening it - as it has done in the past.

This strategy was similar to the one used by Hugo Chávez in 2002 when senior officers of the National Armed Forces declared themselves in disobedience and occupied the Altamira plaza east of Caracas. After three months the action was reduced to zero because it did not echo in the military leadership that supported Chávez in power.

On the other hand, Guaidó knows that the recent measures taken by the Trump government reduce to a minimum the cash currency received by the usurper regime. As time passes, the coffers of the State will dry up, contradictions could arise between the military leadership that supports Maduro, and consequently, ask him to leave the Presidency.

Another action that favors Guaidó's governance is to bring the humanitarian aid to Venezuela with the support of an international force and prove that he has the confidence of the majority of the Venezuelans.

Besides, Guaidó in this crusade for democracy in Venezuela should consider resigning to the party and become the leader of all Venezuelans representing with his actions the entire spectrum of Venezuelan society.

While Maduro requires the tactic of procrastination, Guaidó needs precision.

English