As we approach the presidential election in just eleven days, Venezuela is at the climax of a dramatic soap opera that will introduce a monumental twist and provoke the finale. The transfer of power, both eagerly awaited and feared, seems imminent. Opinion polls indicate a high intention to vote for Edmundo González Urrutia, showing a gap of twenty-five to thirty percentage points compared to the current occupant of Miraflores. Consequently, Nicolás Maduro’s regime should consider negotiating now before being forced into a critical situation. The challenges are political and deeply rooted in the country’s social and military structure. Unfortunately, history shows that those in power do not take preventive measures until they have no choice. There is a belief that large-scale electoral fraud is being prepared and supported by social control—threats—exerted over public employees and beneficiaries of social programs and scholarships.

Thus far, Maduro’s regime has made a series of electoral miscalculations, such as allowing the primary election that resulted in high participation, demonstrating an erosion of their control. As we approach the presidential election day, it becomes more evident that military and police disobedience play a crucial role. The forces traditionally supporting the regime now show signs of wear and resistance.

This was dramatically illustrated in recent popular mobilizations in the states of Táchira and Carabobo. Instead of resorting to direct repression, the Maduro regime opted to block roads, place vehicles, or dump dirt on the streets to hinder Edmundo González Urrutia and María Corina Machado’s gatherings. These actions indicate loyalty within the military and police ranks is no longer monolithic.

The Band of Five, consisting of Vladimir Padrino López, Jorge Rodríguez, Delcy Rodríguez, Cilia Flores, and Diosdado Cabello, finds itself at the center of this political storm. However, even they could be swept away by a wave of disobedience they had not anticipated. The possibility that high-profile figures within the regime might act against their superiors reveals internal fragmentation that could precipitate the collapse of Maduro’s rule.

Another miscalculation is the regime’s strategy of an electoral mega fraud, which it plans to use on July 28 to stay in power. The shadow of the 2007 constitutional referendum, which Hugo Chávez lost, looms over Maduro and his cronies. At that time, the influence of the military family was decisive in accepting the unfavorable results.

Similarly, the night of the 2015 National Assembly election saw the key role of Defense Minister General Padrino López, whose intervention was crucial for Maduro’s PSUV to recognize the defeat before the official results were known. This situation led to a discussion between Padrino López and Diosdado Cabello when the vote count did not favor the government. At that critical moment, Padrino emphasized the importance of the military’s role by warning that not recognizing the result would have resulted in significant violence, and the election day had proceeded peacefully until the CNE extended the voting hours, which was deemed “illegal” by the opposition, generating nervousness and rumors of fraud. That Sunday, by 11:00 pm, the opposition had already won ninety deputies, according to close sources. The official statement from the defense minister from the Strategic Operational Command managed to restore order and sent a message of calm to the country, emphasizing that maintaining peace was the most important thing.

Today, history could repeat itself, with the military pushing for a peaceful and negotiated transition in response to the popular sovereignty’s decision for political change. The fracture within the regime is not just a matter of disobedience but also of political reconfiguration. Recent information has revealed that the government is preparing for a succession that excludes several of the current leaders of the “robolution”, This restructuring could lead to a “refreshing” Chavismo-Madurismo led by new generations of politicians.

In this context, the emergence of movements like the Futuro party, led by young leaders such as Héctor Rodríguez, signals an attempt at renewal. Rodríguez, who began his political career in the 1999 National Constituent Assembly student debates, now stands out as a key figure in the new political wave that could redefine the project of 21st-century socialism.

As this narrative unfolds, democratic forces also have a crucial role to play. The organization and strategy of the opposition at this historical moment will be decisive for the country’s future. The lessons learned from past elections, such as those from Henrique Capriles in 2013, should guide facing current challenges with a renewed and unified vision. Having one hundred percent of the electoral records is a critical success factor to ensure victory and align the armed forces and the international community against Maduro’s electoral mega-fraud.

In conclusion, Venezuela is at a historic crossroads. The transfer of power, the disobedience within the armed forces, the fragmentation of the regime, and the emergence of new political generations within Chavismo-Madurismo constitute a complex and dynamic panorama. The hope lies in this transition process being carried out peacefully and the country finally finding a path to freedom, democracy, stability, and prosperity. The following eleven days will be crucial, and the eyes of the world will be watching how this dramatic political saga unfolds.

English