The statement that Nicolás Maduro will continue usurping the Presidency of Venezuela begins to emerge in some academic circles that oppose the Maduro regime. The chance to leave the presidency varies between 20% and 30%, which means that Maduro has a high possibility of remaining in power.

The assumption behind this conclusion could be due to the fall of Juan Guaidó's leadership to achieve his goal of cease of the usurpation in the last polls - he has registered a loss of 30 points with respect to the day he was sworn in before the people of Caracas, according to Meganalisis- or due to the absence of a plan B - a credible threat of force or use of force- by Guaidó and his allies.

It seems that these intellectuals are seeing a bear market in terms of the shares of Guaidó. Also, they note that the largest holder of Guaidó's shares, the United States, is entering into a "dead end". Their sanctions do not yet produce the desired effect: the lack of support of the military leadership to Maduro as constitutional president of Venezuela.

For those who are bearish: Maduro remains in power at all costs, using corruption, terror and fear, and sacrificing the economy -fall of 25% of GDP-, oil production -300,000 barrels per day at the end of the year- and the welfare of the population -inflation of 10,000,000%. Cuba is an example of success.

Since Guaidó's capacity to take power has been limited to non-violent resistance, because he does not have the capacity to take it by force or through humanitarian intervention.

In this sense, yesterday arrived at Maiquetía airport the first shipment of humanitarian aid that will be distributed by the International Red Cross in "28 hospitals in the country and eight primary care centers". The help came in once Maduro approved its entrance.

The Lima Group at its twelfth meeting in Chile had a different behavior with respect to Guaidó. The Group is "bullish". The Lima Group requested Maduro's international isolation and criticized China, Cuba, Russia, and Turkey for supporting his regime. Besides, it urged the Secretary-General of the United Nations, the General Assembly, and the Security Council to take measures to prevent the deterioration of security in Venezuela and to provide "urgent humanitarian assistance to the population". Also, it condemned what they describe as a "systematic violation of human rights" by the Maduro regime.

The same "bullish" action was made by the Secretary of State of the United States, Mike Pompeo, in his recent visit to Chile, noting that "China's financing of Maduro regime has helped to stimulate and lengthen the crisis" in Venezuela, because the loans that China has given to Venezuela for more than 60 billion dollars have served to fuel corruption, repress non-violent resistance in favor of democracy and finance social programs for social coercion.

Additionally, Pompeo stressed that China and other countries are making a hypocritical call for non-intervention in the internal affairs of Venezuela. "Their financial interventions have helped to destroy that country, by holding Maduro in power".

Also, Canada maintains a "bullish" behavior in relation to Guaidó. On Monday, they sanctioned 43 other officials of the Maduro regime, including his foreign minister Jorge Arreaza, as well as the ministers of economy, Simón Zerpa, and oil, Manuel Quevedo.

While the countries of the Montevideo Mechanism uphold the position of Guaidó and try to take care of the political capital by defending democracy and the rule of law in Venezuela, they propose a dialogue-negotiation to carry out a presidential election.

So far, Maduro has used negotiation as a tool to gain time in power. It will only negotiate in good faith if it has an equally dangerous counterpart that threatens the survival of its regime.

For now, Maduro and his supporters think that the actors who are "bullish" do not intend to use all the options. Also, they know that the followers of Guaidó are hungry, so they are impatient, looking for a short-term solution. That makes them play with medium-term positions. Besides, the financial operations of Russia and Iran are at a loss. They seek to destabilize the Americas and consequently the United States.

Therefore, the main actors that support Guaidó must generate certainty in the market and start giving profits to motivate the rest of participants to believe that they are in the presence of a "bull market". Otherwise, Maduro will continue usurping the Presidency.

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