The summer vacations in the northern hemisphere relegated for two weeks the meetings in Barbados that seek to establish the road map of the "peaceful, political and democratic" exit in Venezuela.

During this time, Diosdado Cabello and Nicolas Maduro began preparing the machinery of the United Socialist Party of Venezuela for the parliamentary election, which should occur in December 2020 according to the Constitution of Venezuela.

On July 19, Maduro asked the national leadership of the PSUV to register to the bases of the party, re-launching the card of the militant. He said: "It is the organizational formula and support for the militants of the base" because the militant's data is stored in the card with QR code technology (quick response code), allows PSUV's authorities the mobilization of supporters any moment through a QR reader. It knows in real-time who has attended their polling station.

Maduro requested to increase the registration of new militants by 1, 2, or 3 million in two months. He also said that they currently have 6,446,872 cardholders. Also, he stated that 90% (5,802,185) voted for his candidacy in the election of May 20, 2018 - a figure different from the National Electoral Council's record of 6,190,612 votes.

On July 22, Diosdado Cabello indicated that more than 5 million homes had been visited throughout the country by the PSUV because of the "parliamentary elections". "We already have more than 5 million people visited and checked".

On July 28, Sumate Civil Association called the attention to Juan Guaido's supporters and the country that 7,533,440 Venezuelans need to register or update their data in the electoral roll. Of these, 3,659,731 Venezuelans should carry out these processes abroad, and 3,893,709 voters in Venezuela.

Likewise, Súmate reported that the estimated electoral roll for December 2019 would be 23,724,184 Venezuelans, according to estimates by the National Statistics Institute, which allows making various assessments.

The first one is that PSUV members represent 27% of the electoral roll and the rest, 73 %, is against the Maduro regime. These results match with the measurement of the majority of Venezuelan pollsters (Datanalisis, Datincorp, Meganalisis, IVAD, Prognosis) when they affirm that 80% of Venezuelans reject Maduro's administration. The 73% of these electorates are divided into 41% of registered voters and 32% of electors unregistered and without updated information on the electoral roll.

The second finding is that 68% of the actual register roll could currently exercise the right to vote. If this were the case, it would reduce the difference in the result between the two electoral options. Maduro would still get 27% and the opposition candidate -best-case scenario Guaidó - 41%. This result is without taking abstention into account and leaving out the 7,533,440 voters who need to register or update their data.

When considering historical abstention in Venezuela, the result between one option and another is reduced. With 30% abstention, Guaidó would win the election by 4.15%. This close result approaches the margin of error, allowing Maduro to the election –as it happens with Andrés Velázquez in the 2018 governor's elections in Bolivar state. If the abstention increases, Maduro option would succeed from 33% and on. In this scenario, the premise is that Maduro maintains a 27% floor.

Therefore, Súmate sets the alarm to the opposition parties to Maduro in Venezuela and the embassies of the interim government abroad to include 32% of the voters, who are without registration and updating of data, in the electoral roll. Because in two months Guaido's goal should be: to have registered and updated 1 to 2 million voters abroad through the embassies of the interim government and in Venezuela electoral roll.

The Maduro regime knows that if all Venezuelans who have the right to vote to participate, the abstention will not impact on Guaidó's win. For this reason, it bets on the "militancy" card, the lack of registration and updating of voter data in the electoral roll, and the supply of food boxes of the Local Supply and Production Committees -known as CLAP boxes-, to ensure the electoral victory.

According to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) the number of undernourished people in Venezuela increases 26% annually (average three years). This is, malnutrition in Venezuela has taken root; 4 out of 10 Venezuelans acquire the disease every year. In 2018 there were 6,8 million Venezuelans (21% of the population).

Therefore, on July 25th, Maduro said that "not even with a million sanctions" would stop [the United States] its food program. "The CLAPs are of the people, and nobody takes them away".

Maduro and Cabello are preparing the ground for an election. They call it a parliamentary vote. But, this election does not solve the political crisis in Venezuela.

The election will be presidential, accompanied by the legislative ones, almost guaranteed. So, Guaidó and the opposition forces to Maduro must start planning to go to the presidential election with that of the National Assembly, communicating to their followers the electoral road map. Sumate raises the warning. It is up to each one to ensure the victory.

Summer vacations are over: Guaidó and Maduro return to Barbados.

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